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30 Elections Predictions
23/01/2006

If you haven't voted yet, skip this and go here, then go to your polling station.

If you've voted already, you might as well sit back and enjoy the ride. I went looking for predictions, just to see who can figure this thing out. I compiled the list below until I got tired of looking.

All predictions below are in the format: Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc, NDP, Independent or other.

  1. Me: 119, 95, 60, 34, 0
  2. Election Prediction Project: 118, 104, 56, 29, 1
  3. UBC Election Stock Market at 8:06PST: 125, 96, 53, 33, 1
  4. LISOP: 140, 78, 56, 33, 1
  5. Democratic Space: 128, 94, 56, 29, 1
  6. Calgary Grit: 132, 87, 57, 31, 1
  7. Crawl Across the Ocean: 130, 86, 61, 30, 1
  8. Sinister Thoughts: 135, 88, 54, 31, 0
  9. James Bow: 130, 76, 60, 40, 2
  10. Andrew Coyne: 140, 81, 54, 31, 2
  11. J. Kelly Nestruck: 128, 94, 57, 28, 1
  12. Colby Cosh: 126, 94, 64, 23, 1
  13. Adam Radwanski: 142, 78, 62, 26, 0
  14. All Things Canadian: 119, 97, 60, 31, 1
  15. Trendlines: 139, 73, 60, 35, 1
  16. Ipsos Reid (link PDF): 150, 64, 58, 36, 0
  17. Jord: 135, 72, 62, 38, 1
  18. This Canada: 138, 75, 59, 36, 0
  19. Mason at This Magazine Blog: 125, 89, 64, 29, 1
  20. Pinnacle Sports: 143, 78, 57, 30
  21. Tom Axworthy: 120, 98, 63, 27, 0
  22. Peter Donolo: 140, 80, 59, 29, 0
  23. Goldy Hyder: 145, 81, 56, 26, 0
  24. Janice MacKinnon, 139, 72, 59, 38, 0
  25. Robin Sears, 161, 69, 47, 31, 0
  26. Moe Sihota, 144, 72, 60, 32, 0
  27. Electionpolls.Blogspot: 140, 80, 58, 30, 0
  28. David Robert Loblaw: 136, 89, 57, 26, 0
  29. Murky View: 121, 110, 59, 34, 0 -- that adds to 324!
  30. Invisible Hand: 155, 47, 64, 41, 1

I appear to be at one extreme end of the spectrum. That doesn't bode well for my odds of winning the Bow James Bow Election Pool.

UPDATE: More…

Note: Some of these predictions (such as Allan Gregg's) have been adjusted by me from a range to a single number.

The average of all of the above: Cons 135, Lib 82, Bloc 58.5, NDP 31.5, Other 1


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