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The Bow James Bow Election Pool -- Final Guess
25/06/2004

James Bow has been running an election pool over at the Blogs Canada E-Group. You were allowed to guess once before the debates, and once again afterwards.

My first guess is here.

Here's my new guess:

  • Liberal 116
  • Conservative 113
  • Bloc 51
  • NDP 28

If it turns out to be true, it would mean a pretty interesting -- and brief -- 38th Parliament of Canada. (Which is more or less what I said right after the leaders' debate.)

I created my guess using the Election Prediction Project... assuming most of their calls are right, and then working my way through all the (87) too-close-to-calls to see how I thought they'd go. Well, at least that was my method until the EPP shut down after exceeding their bandwidth (again).

Breakdowns:

  • BC - Lib 6, Cons 26, NDP 4
  • Alberta - Cons 28
  • Sask/Man/Territories - Lib 8, Cons 13, NDP 10
  • Ontario - Lib 61, Cons 35, NDP 10
  • Quebec - Lib 24, BQ 51
  • Atlantic - Lib 17, Cons 11, NDP, 4

Hope that adds up. Have a great weekend, and vote on Monday! Cheers...


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