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Quick Hits, Volume XV
25/06/2004

Closest election ever? That's how we wanted it, apparently.

  • The Ottawa Citizen spoke to Warren Kinsella and reported this, which I think is absolutely right: "According to former Liberal worker Warren Kinsella, appeals from either Prime Minister Paul Martin or Conservative leader Stephen Harper for an extra push that could earn the majority prize of 155 seats are likely to fall on deaf ears -- especially in Ontario. 'The people we're talking to are quite happy with a minority government situation,' said the Toronto-based Mr. Kinsella, 'On the one hand, they want to punish the Liberals, and on the other, they like the notion of a minority keeping Harper and Conservatives on a leash. Any suggestion of a majority and they pull back from it. They're comfortable with a minority.'" Harper lost steam, not because of child porn or Air Canada, but because he had gone as far as people were comfortable letting him go.
  • Interesting snippet from the last SES update: "High undecided in Quebec (link PDF) (29%) may be Liberal Trojan Horse." (And that undecided number has been growing.) That, plus a possible shrinkage in Green support -- but not me, I'm sticking with Elgie -- could bump up the Liberals on Monday.
  • The same SES tables show the Ontario numbers (link PDF) on June 24 for the three major parties at the same numbers as May 30, after a brief flirtation with the Conservatives.
  • Meanwhile, Ipsos-Reid thinks its a lot closer between the Conservatives (31) and Liberals (32), and have the NDP (17) considerably lower than SES's consistent result. This result would probably give Harper more seats.

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