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Quick Hits, Volume XIV
18/06/2004

These are getting rather long to call them "quick hits", but not really long enough for their own posts…

  • I'm with Calgary Grit on this: "I love how Paul is going down fighting for all the things he never believed in. Today, he's the champion of a strong federal government. Along with Kyoto, gay rights, the Clarity Bill, and staying out of the Iraq War. Chretien would be wiping the floor with Harper on these issues but Martin was so ambiguously neutral on each and every one of them that he has very little to stand on."
  • The latest SES poll (pdf) is interesting. Libs 34%, CPC 29%, NDP 22%, Bloc 10%, Green 5%. That's the highest that the NDP has been all campaign. Time is getting short for their supporters to bail out and go Liberal in an anti-Harper panic. Might not happen. However, considering that nearly every NDP, BQ, and Green vote probably comes at the expense of the Liberals, I wonder how this new poll would shake out in terms of seats?
  • Past Canadian election results are organized at Wikipedia. Interestingly, the latest SES poll numbers, if they held, would represent one of the best, if not the best ever, result for the NDP. (In elections 1968-2000, the best the NDP has done is 20.4% of the vote.) Also interestingly, if the Conservatives were held to 29% as in the SES poll (I know other polls have them higher) that would be the worst ever performance for the right wing. That is, if you combine PC & Reform totals in recent years, the "right" party/parties have garnered a low of 31.7%* of the vote in 1968, ranging to a high of 50.0% in 1984. 29% is probably an anomaly, but it would be just 3.5% above Stockwell Day's result.
  • The Toronto Sun's Sue-Ann Levy has a column out in which she slams David Miller for critiquing the Conservative's minimalist plan for cities. She says he "has a big mouth" and suggests that he may not be able to work with Harper as a result. I rather think it is more responsible for our mayor to politely point out that when it comes to urgently-needed municipal reform, one party's plan isn't as good as the others. It would be better than not standing up for the City, I think. In any case, we know now what the Sun's position will be if Harper wins and doesn't do anything for Cities. It will be because the big city mayors were rude and pissed him off... and need to be replaced with right-wing mayors who will please the new Prime Minister.
  • The saga of The Windsor Star election poll is an interesting one. A couple weeks ago, the Star had shocking poll results on the front page that showed the Conservatives leading in suburban/rural Essex (by a wide margin) and urban Windsor West. These results were remarkable -- Windsor West is a rather left-leaning riding that has an NDP incumbent, and Essex could possibly go Conservative, but not so dramatically. Anyway, the Star has now reversed itself (but not on the front page, of course). The pollster, Lydia Miljan, of the University of Windsor and the Fraser Institute, now says "The numbers published on the front page did not represent the total sample drawn from May 23 to June 3." The Star goes on to report (sorry, no link) "Results were published based on a sample size of 70 respondents, while the full sample size was 497 respondents." (I would hope that that is per riding, but it may not be.) Their full numbers -- now published -- show, for example, the NDP leading in Windsor West, with the Liberal second. Sheesh!

* -- If you count the Raillement créditiste party as "right" then the right-wing vote in 1968 would be 37%. Their low year, otherwise, would then be 1980, when PCs and So-Creds combined for 34.2%.


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