Apparently the numbers I listed last night were the numbers for the 64% who will "definitely vote".
Global's poll is now being reported on in detail on the canada.com website. The numbers for decided voters are somewhat different.
Here are the numbers, then, for decided voters and then definite voters:
The way this is being covered in the media, attention is being focused on the definite voters. Perhaps this makes the most sense, but I think it may also be a good job of spinning the results by John Tory's team.
What I find interesting are some of the comments being made in the coverage of this poll that shows Hall continuing to slip and Miller and Tory firming themselves up as the top contenders.
COMPAS President Conrad Winn was quoted in the Toronto Star as saying "Who could have guessed, Miller and Tory, who were then for months and months in single digits, would be the ones approaching a photo finish?"
I think the answer, actually, is that there are many people who are not surprised. Watching the race through the early fall I realized how strong Tory and Miller were compared to Hall, and began to suspect that she would tail off once the media and voters were paying attention. For the past few weeks I haven't been thinking about Barbara Hall much at all, and from the looks of it, neither has John Tory's team.
Conrad Winn isn't alone in making this mistake. At the Star, both Royson James and Ian Urquhart wrote this election off in the early fall months. I think the problem is that no-one has really seen a race like this in Canada before: A year-long struggle for position before a month-and-a-half-long sprint to the finish.
Conrad Winn also makes an unusual comment in the canada.com coverage.
I really don't think so. I think it is because all of her statements have been weak and uninspiring and because both Tory and Miller have done a good job of coming out and clearly defining themselves, their character and their thinking for the city.
Interestingly, Conrad Winn and his research point to these other observations:
When asked about "the most important issue" in the campaign, the response went along these lines, based on how I interpret the canada.com article:
Voters were also asked what they think about John Nunziata's bribe allegations. From the Star:
The poll was taken Thursday-Saturday. Saturday was when the Nunziata camp specifically named the Tory team in the Toronto Star.
I really think that someone should write a book about this election when it is over. It has had a lot of drama. It has also had interesting dynamics that are relevant to people interested in political science. It has been unique in many ways.
DISCLOSURE: After a serious decision-making process, I joined the Miller-for-mayor campaign a few weeks ago. However, all comments on this website are my own, and do not necessarily represent the views of David Miller or his campaign. My role in the campaign is grunt-level and I haven't even met the strategists.