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Ontario Election Prediction
15/09/2003

Today I feel like going out on a limb. Some bloggers (including me) have been following the Ontario election, and trying to track what appears on other blogs. Ikram Saeed doesn't have time for that, but he's doing something just as cool... tallying up the voting intentions of Ontario bloggers. However, so far I haven't seen any other blogger make a prediction for this election. It's still early yet, but I'm going to take a stab at it! I'm feeling lucky!

The election is two and a half weeks away, and the most recent public polls show the two lead parties in a dead heat. However, there were rumours today in the Globe and Mail, based on private polls, that the Liberals have reopened a lead of 6-8 points. This rumour seems to be confirmed by a PC memo that warns Tory candidates to ignore public opinion polls.

More importantly, my extensive research (reading stuff online) gives me the sense that the Tory platform is not going over that well. They are left with the option of attacking the Liberal leader, but that doesn't seem to have gone too well, either. What came next was the press release about the "evil reptilian kitten-eater from another planet." A moronic line like this normally wouldn't mean much. But given how the rest of the campaign has been going, it can become the lens through which everything else is viewed: it will reinforce the impression that Eves' platform is empty, and they have nothing left to do but call people names.

It looks like the Liberals are ahead, and have momentum. I don't believe there are any great hidden diamonds in the PC platform that are going to suddenly turn things around. McGuinty could theoretically bungle it, but Eves and his team seem just as likely to do so, if not more. It's far from being over, but in the interests of being one of the first bloggers to take the gamble, I am now predicting that Dalton McGuinty will be our next premier. In fact, while I'm rolling the dice, why not go all the way and call it a slim majority?


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